We are independent & ad-supported. We may earn a commission for purchases made through our links.
Advertiser Disclosure
Our website is an independent, advertising-supported platform. We provide our content free of charge to our readers, and to keep it that way, we rely on revenue generated through advertisements and affiliate partnerships. This means that when you click on certain links on our site and make a purchase, we may earn a commission. Learn more.
How We Make Money
We sustain our operations through affiliate commissions and advertising. If you click on an affiliate link and make a purchase, we may receive a commission from the merchant at no additional cost to you. We also display advertisements on our website, which help generate revenue to support our work and keep our content free for readers. Our editorial team operates independently of our advertising and affiliate partnerships to ensure that our content remains unbiased and focused on providing you with the best information and recommendations based on thorough research and honest evaluations. To remain transparent, we’ve provided a list of our current affiliate partners here.
Science

Our Promise to you

Founded in 2002, our company has been a trusted resource for readers seeking informative and engaging content. Our dedication to quality remains unwavering—and will never change. We follow a strict editorial policy, ensuring that our content is authored by highly qualified professionals and edited by subject matter experts. This guarantees that everything we publish is objective, accurate, and trustworthy.

Over the years, we've refined our approach to cover a wide range of topics, providing readers with reliable and practical advice to enhance their knowledge and skills. That's why millions of readers turn to us each year. Join us in celebrating the joy of learning, guided by standards you can trust.

What is the Planning Fallacy?

Michael Anissimov
By
Updated: May 17, 2024
Views: 9,994
Share

The planning fallacy is an intuitively obvious and scientifically well-measured tendency of people to assume projects will take less time than they do and that the outcome will be better than is justified by past data or experience. For instance, newlyweds almost universally expect their marriages to last a lifetime, when in fact less than half of marriages actually do.

The planning fallacy has been studied by cognitive psychologists who have found evidence for, and strongly suspect that the fallacy is universal across the human species. That people’s predictions are optimistically biased has been called the most robust finding in the psychology of prediction.

There are some exceptions to the planning fallacy. One is that people seem to actually accurately estimate for certain important and personally relevant events such as unwanted pregnancy. It is also well known that people overestimate the probability of rare, highly negative events happening to or around them, such as overestimating death via plane crash while underestimating death via auto accident. These are exceptions to the planning fallacy.

The planning fallacy is likely a special case of overoptimism in general. People have been observed to overestimate the likelihood of good things happening to them. Between 85% and 90% of people feel that their own futures will be better — in terms of health and other things they value — than that of an average peer. In cognitive psychology, there is even a phenomenon called “realistic pessimism,” where very pessimistic people are found to have more accurate predictions in the domain of task prediction than people of optimistic or average dispositions.

It has also been found that people are selectively overoptimistic when the predictions they are making are not personally relevant, and somewhat less so when they are. People have been found to take their skills into account when predicting whether or not they can accomplish something within a given time frame. Optimistic bias can even correlate with improved performance. So the threat of irrational optimism is not as serious as it appears at first sight.

Share
WiseGeek is dedicated to providing accurate and trustworthy information. We carefully select reputable sources and employ a rigorous fact-checking process to maintain the highest standards. To learn more about our commitment to accuracy, read our editorial process.
Michael Anissimov
By Michael Anissimov
Michael Anissimov is a dedicated WiseGeek contributor and brings his expertise in paleontology, physics, biology, astronomy, chemistry, and futurism to his articles. An avid blogger, Michael is deeply passionate about stem cell research, regenerative medicine, and life extension therapies. His professional experience includes work with the Methuselah Foundation, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, and Lifeboat Foundation, further showcasing his commitment to scientific advancement.

Editors' Picks

Discussion Comments
Michael Anissimov
Michael Anissimov
Michael Anissimov is a dedicated WiseGeek contributor and brings his expertise in paleontology, physics, biology,...
Learn more
Share
https://www.wisegeek.net/what-is-the-planning-fallacy.htm
Copy this link
WiseGeek, in your inbox

Our latest articles, guides, and more, delivered daily.

WiseGeek, in your inbox

Our latest articles, guides, and more, delivered daily.